While everybody has their eyes on North Korea, another nuclear program still worries those
in the White House.
That is the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This country has such a bad reputation that when we talk about it, it can feel like we're
talking about one of those places that only exists in the movies, one of those countries
dominated by evil leaders who dream of destroying the world...
Well, there might be some truth to this, but definitely not as much as some seem to think.
In fact, Iran is not the most religious, authoritarian or the most hostile towards women place in
this part of the world.
Saudi Arabia is much worse... by far.
Dear viewer, Iran is a country of contradictions, a country whose government claims to work
under a democratic system, but at the same time, everything is under the control of one
man: Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.
Even though, at first glance, he isn't as scary as his predecessor: Ruhollah Khomeini,
who was scary just to look at…
The truth is Ali Khamenei can't stand anything modern.
For him, modernity might as well have come from Satan himself.
Well... except for nuclear technology, of course.
That explains why in the past few years Iran has been famous for two things:
1.
Being one of the countries, alongside with China, where the most people are executed
every year, and…
2.
Wanting to build their own nuclear bomb.
However, unlike what happened with the North Korean crisis, the US and Iran did reach an
agreement:
In 2015, President Obama lead the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement to prevent Iran
from obtaining a Nuclear Bomb, and an agreement that many have considered to be one of the
greatest achievements in foreign policy.
Although, to be fair, all signs seem to point to the conclusion that this agreement has
not kept either party satisfied.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, is pretty clear about his opinion on
the deal: ever since he was a candidate, he has described it as "the worst agreement
ever negotiated".
During his campaign, Trump vowed on many, many occasions that his top priority would
be to put an end to such a catastrophic agreement.
And don´t think it was the typical campaign message that every politician repeats over
and over again but then soon forgets after election, not at all in fact.
During, in his first speech at the UN Assembly, Trump repeated it, loud and clear:
They haven't done so yet, but it is true that both the president and many other members
of the Republican Party loathe, yep, loathe this agreement.
And they do because, among other things, agreements were also signed with North Korea…
And these agreements did not work at all… except for allowing Pyongyang to lay their
hands on the Bomb.
Well, you might be wondering why it is such a controversial agreement.
We'll look into that.
But before we do, let´s take a look at the context in which it was signed.
IRAN: A BUDDING SUPERPOWER?
During the Cold War, it was said that the Russians were so obsessed that they saw a
Chinese man behind every tree.
Something similar might be happening between Iran and the USA:
Since the islamic revolution of Khomeini in 1979, Iran has become one of Washington's
worst enemies.
It has accused Tehran of being the first sponsor of radical and anti-American groups like Hezbollah,
Hamas or the Taliban.
Not to mention the support of the Syrian regime of Bashar Al Asad.
But there is more.
Washington knows very well that Iran isn't just any country…
Look, it's huge.
Iran has more than 80 million inhabitants and one of the greatest amounts of mineral
wealth on Earth.
And, hey, it's not just oil and natural gas, but other minerals like copper, iron,
zinc, uranium, silver...etc.
But yeah, we all know oil and natural gas are especially important.
Well, that is why I want to ask this question: What is the biggest fear of many analysts
in Washington?
Well, that is the sum of Iraq and Iran.
Let me explain.
Both countries are neighbours, have a Shiite majority, and the influence of Tehran on Baghdad
has skyrocketed in the past few years.
Well, if we add up the oil reserves of both countries, the amount is one of the largest
in the world, larger than in Saudi Arabia or Venezuela...
So, coordinated international politics between these two countries would result in a superpower,
outside the control of Washington, of almost 120 million people and many, many natural
resources.
That would be a remarkable amount of influence…
So then, what would happen if Iran got a hold of a nuclear bomb?
On the one hand it would consolidate its role as an international superpower and its influence
over allies, like Iraq.
On the other hand, it would trigger an arms race with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, countries
that have already said that they won't be left behind if Tehran manages to get a nuclear
bomb.
The result is obvious:
Tension, risk of proliferation, risk of nuclear disaster and also, a loss of American leverage
in the area.
It goes without saying that seeing such radical governments in possession of such powerful
weapons… doesn't exactly make anyone feel very safe.
Well, this was the situation when the agreement was reached in 2015.
THE DEAL
For years, the United States has tried to stop the nuclear program with financial penalties…
but they were useless.
Did they harm the economy in Iran?
Very much, but in no way did they stop the nuclear program…
So… finally, on the 14th of July 2015, the Nuclear Deal was signed.
An agreement with a clear target: to prevent proliferation and make sure Iran only use
nuclear technology to peaceful ends.
However, since then, the deal has suffered harsh attacks.
We're going to have a look at some of the reasons cited by critics of this agreement.
But first, I think now is a good time to think about the circumstances under which this agreement
was signed.
And the first thing we need to know is that the nuclear program in Iran is very, very
advanced.
Look, according to US intelligence, if the agreement was to be broken, Iran could develop
its first nuclear bomb in a matter of months.
This is the way it is today, and it was even truer in 2015 when the Iranian program was
working at its fullest capacity.
That is why I want to take a moment to think about the 3 possible outcomes:
War, agreement, or Iran with nuclear capability…
So, stopping the nuclear program with military intervention would not have been an easy task.
It would have resulted in many victims, the cost for the US would have been prohibitive,
and the US would have had to keep military intervention in the Middle East for decades.
To compare, it estimated that this would be the Iraq's war... multiplied by 5.
Because it's one thing to destroy infrastructure and a very different thing to eliminate the
knowledge a country has to make nuclear bombs.
Obama knew that this scenario was completely impossible.
What he wanted was to get away from the Middle East, and not to get in any more trouble…
involvement in this region has been a chronic nightmare for the United States.
But sure, on the other hand… not doing anything would have meant that Iran would have gotten
their new toy… and as we have seen, it would have resulted in an arms race in the region,
which Washington didn't want either.
So, an agreement was the only option left.
"We make a deal and everybody's happy, right?"
Mmmm, wait there, because despite that, many experts, especially Republicans, don't even
want to hear about this pact.
Are they all just war hawks determined to impose their ideas by force?
Well, maybe there are some like that… but the truth is… they also have a point.
They say (and they are right) that the US already signed many agreements with North
Korea and Pyongyang never kept its word, which is why North Korea is now a nuclear power...
They are convinced that Iran will do the same… and there is no better evidence of it than
this: Iran has not stopped their ballistic missile program.
"Iran is boosting its missile capabilities to order to increase the accuracy, preciseness
and range".
Iran will not stop the missile projects".
Nader Karimi Joni, Irani journalist
And this program is being developed...with North Korean technology...by the way.
So… it seems clear which way a deal with Iran will go.
Besides, since the pact has a limited duration, Iran could still put itself in a position
to get its arsenal the moment the deal was over--and it could be armed in a matter of
months.
However, as we have seen, the alternatives aren't any better… and you know what?
Iran doesn't necessarily need to go the way of North Korea.
IRAN, BENEFITS OF THE AGREEMENT
I'm sure many of you are thinking that comparing North Korea and Iran is easy.
After all both countries are radical dictatorships, right?
Well, not really.
To be fair...things are a bit different.
Iranian society is much more openminded than North Korean society,
In Iran, there is a well formed middle class, there are political debates, and things like
having a smartphone and access to the internet are quite common.
In fact, most Iranians, especially the younger generation, are clearly pro-agreement.
You see, it's not just a matter of international politics.
It's also a matter of quality of life.
The penalties put in place by the international community were very damaging for Iran.
Look, in 2013, when the president Ahmadinejad, the main defender of the agreement, left power,
the economy of Iran was devastated:
Foreign investment vanished, the unemployment rate skyrocketed, inflation grew to around
40% and expectations for improvement weren't high…
In short, it was a complete mess...
But thanks to the agreement the penalties started to disappear and, and since then,
oil exports have tripled, for example.
I mean, Iran is not North Korea; they need the trade and economic advantages the agreement
has brought.
"The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action will produce the comprehensive lifting of
all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related
to Iran's nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance,
and energy".
Preface of the deal with Iran.
http://eeas.europa.eu/archives/docs/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/iran_joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action_en.pdf
The hope for Obama´s administration was that with a more prosperous and trade-open Iran,
the younger, more open minded generation would be allowed to take power in a few years.
However, those who oppose the agreement argue it is necessary to be more demanding with
Iran, because otherwise it will eventually become another North Korea, a new nuclear
power.
Anyway, it is not an easy situation as you can see, but, truth be told, I think it would
be a mistake to think that any pact is bad until proven otherwise.
Having Tehran under pressure might be a good strategy, but let's be careful not to go too
far, or we could all lose.
So, now it is your turn: If you were the President of the United States, what would you do deal
with Iran?
Leave your answer in the comments as well as in the survey.
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