If you've listened to The Action Network NFL Podcast or read any of our weekly NFL experts picks pieces, you probably know that it's almost automatic for me to bet the under at Arrowhead Stadium
With head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs have been the league's most profitable home team for under bettors: Since 2013 (including playoffs), they have a 33-17-1 under record at Arrowhead, good for an A-graded 28
6% return on investment (per Bet Labs). Let's explore what has made the Arrowhead under so profitable for bettors in the Reid era
The Chiefs Defense Is Good The season before Reid joined the team, the Chiefs were 30th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA
They allowed scores on 40.4% of opponent drives, the second-highest mark in the league
In short, they were dreadful. Under Reid and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, the Chiefs have been better
Not consistently great, but better. 2013: 9th in DVOA, 5th in points allowed 2014: 19th in DVOA, 2nd in points allowed 2015: 6th in DVOA, 3rd in points allowed 2016: 14th in DVOA, 7th in points allowed 2017: 30th in DVOA, 15th in points allowed 2018: 26th in DVOA, 24th in points allowed The defense has admittedly regressed over the past two seasons, but the unit is unquestionably better than it was before Reid's arrival
Moore: What Betting Against My Favorite Team Taught Me in VegasRead now The Chiefs Defense Is Elite at Home It's common for teams to allow fewer points on their home fields, but the Chiefs defense has taken this dynamic to the extreme since 2013
At home (51 games): 17.12 points allowed On road (51 games): 23.45 points allowed On the road, the Chiefs have had a slightly above-average defense: Over the past seasons, road teams have allowed 24
04 points per game. But at Arrowhead the Chiefs are elite. Their 17.12 mark is easily first in the league among home teams
For context: The Ravens are second at 18.02, and the Seahawks are third at 18.26
Think about that: The Ravens and Seahawks have had two of the league's best defenses and home-field advantages since 2013
And yet the Chiefs have been defensively better at Arrowhead over that time. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Anthony Hitchens (53), defensive tackle Chris Jones (95)
In the Reid era, no defense has a home/road split more extremely positive than the Chiefs have with their differential of +6
33 points. Even though the Chiefs no longer have the defense they had in years past, this season they have still been extremely strong in Kansas City
At home (nine games): 17.44 points allowed On road (eight games): 34.63 points allowed There could be some noise in these numbers based on the team's strength of schedule at home vs
on the road, but the general pattern of home dominance holds even if we look only at the Chiefs' six games against divisional opponents, whom they have played both at home and on the road
At home (three games): 18.33 points allowed On road (three games): 28 points allowed However you slice the numbers, the Chiefs defense has been much better in Kansas City than anywhere else and is a significant driving force for the Arrowhead under
Arrowhead Stadium Is a Tough Place to Play What's evident is that Arrowhead is a tough place for opponents to play
Why is this the case? For one, the stadium is unbelievably loud. In 2014, the Chiefs set the Guinness World Record for loudest crowd roar at a sports stadium with an eight-second 142
2-decibel outburst. On top of that, the weather at Arrowhead is often unpleasant
The third-coldest game in NFL history was played there in 1996. Especially once the calendar hits November, the outdoor conditions at the stadium can be described most accurately as painfully glacial
And it's not just the temperature that's a problem for scoring. The passing game suffers in windy conditions, and points are produced more readily from passing than running
As it happens, Kansas City has the Weather Channel's second-highest wind score of any NFL city
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
In this environment, it's no wonder the Chiefs defense performs like an elite unit
Of course, it's not just opposing offenses that score less in Kansas City. The Chiefs Offense Scores Fewer Points at Arrowhead In the Reid era, the Chiefs have actually scored more points on the road than at Arrowhead
At home (51 games): 25.18 points On road (51 games): 28.14 points That -2.96 home/road differential might not seem like a lot, but it's massive considering that 29 NFL franchises since 2013 have had positive home/road offensive splits
Over the past six years, no offense has as large of a negative home/road discrepancy in scoring as the Chiefs have
Even with first-team All-Pro quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have been less offensively dominant this season in Kansas City
At home (nine games): 32.22 points On road (eight games): 38.25 points And this trend holds when we look just at divisional opponents
At home (three games): 31 points On road (eight games): 35 points This is not to say that on the whole the Chiefs have no home-field advantage
With Reid, they have a scoring differential of +8.06 points at home vs. +4.69 on the road
Since 2013, only the Patriots (+13.19) and Seahawks (+8.83) have outscored their opponents by greater margins at home
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
In fact, perhaps the Chiefs have scored fewer points at Arrowhead because of how dominant their defense has been in Kansas City
At home, they have less pressure to light up the scoreboard, and so they can afford to focus less on putting up points and more on controlling the ball
Regardless, the historical numbers indicate that points are precious for both teams at Arrowhead, not just the visitors
Over the past six seasons, Chiefs games have averaged 51.59 points on the road, but 42
29 at Arrowhead. Unsurprisingly, that -9.29 home/road game-total differential is easily the lowest mark in the league
It's no wonder the Arrowhead under is so pronounced. Will the Arrowhead Under Hit in the Chiefs-Patriots AFC Championship Game? In Week 6, the Chiefs and Patriots combined for 83 points at Gillette Stadium
But this week they face each other in Kansas City. As of writing, the forecast calls for a game-time temperature of 20 degrees (per the FantasyLabs Models)
The over has been a smart contrarian bet in cold games, so you definitely shouldn't blindly bet on the Arrowhead under, especially since rematches between non-divisional opponents have trended to the over
The over/under opened at 59.5 points but it dropped to 54.5 because of a frigid forecast in Kansas City
Since then, however, the forecast has improved, and so bettors have started to invest in the over, pushing the total to 55
5. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10), running back Damien Williams (26)
With two dynamic offenses and a depressed total, the over could easily hit. But I would urge caution
We know the long-term trend of the Arrowhead under. At home, the Chiefs have historically limited scoring on defense and exhibited less explosiveness on offense
Only twice in the Reid era have the Chiefs faced a non-divisional opponent two times in the same season with home and away games: In 2013 with the Colts and 2016 with the Steelers
Rovell: Julian Edelman's 'Bet Against Us' Shirts Are a Bunch of Hot AirRead now The sample is small, so we shouldn't read too much into it, but against the larger backdrop of the Arrowhead under, these per-game splits are suggestive
On road (two games): 73 points total, 29 points scored, 44 points allowed At home (two games): 32 points total, 11
5 points scored, 20.5 points allowed For his entire postseason career, stretching back to his first playoff appearance with the Eagles in 2000, Reid has an under record of 15-9-1, and the Arrowhead under is 3-0 in the postseason
Do with this information what you will, but here's what I know: The only way I'll bet the over is if the total drops below 54
And if that happens, I'll be shooting for the middle. Because you know I've already bet the under
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