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New Hampshire facing demographic crunch as population ages US news
The state, like neighbours Vermont and Maine, has the nation's oldest median age, posing challenges but maybe opportunities
The state, like neighbours Vermont and Maine, has the nation's oldest median age, posing challenges but maybe opportunities
There are worse places to live than the small, bucolic New Hampshire town of Meredith. Nature feels close, with Lake Winnipesaukee stretching out from the town to forests and mountains beyond. The former mill town's compact, walkable centre is home to boutiques, restaurants and a winery. Traffic picks up a bit in the summer as tourists head to the water – and again for ice fishing and ice hockey tournaments on the frozen lake in the winter. But for the most part, Meredith is a quiet, serene and beautiful place for the people that live there.
Here and elsewhere in the state, the New Hampshire way of life and a strong economy led to a population boom in the 1970s and 1980s. In Meredith, the population grew by 60% in the 1970s alone. The problem is that that migration slowed to a trickle and then a virtual halt. Today, the baby boomers who moved to the state back then have dramatically unbalanced the state's age demographics.
In 2010, just 16.7% of Meredith's Belknap county was over the age of 65; In 2030, it is projected that 37% will be over that age.
What's happening in Meredith and Belknap county is a microcosm of what is happening across New Hampshire and across northern New England: large portions of the population are getting older while there is minimal – or sometimes even negative – migration and growth.
The northern New England states of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont are today the oldest in the nation, with median ages of 44.7, 43.1 and 42.9 respectively. The median age nationally is just 38.
While it is expected that the over-65 population will outnumber the below-18 population nationwide by 2035, that shift is expected to occur in all of the northern New England states in the coming years.
This ageing population creates real challenges, and potentially an economic crisis: As workers retire, businesses are struggling to replace them. It is an environment where expanding economic productivity – or even keeping it steady – appears difficult without an influx of young blood.
"The workforce itself, the 18-64 workforce, has essentially no growth in it at all. And that's a very big problem for employers and a very big problem for the economic future of New Hampshire," said Peter Francese, a demographer who lives in Exeter, New Hampshire. "Sooner or later, employers are so frustrated by their inability to find workers that if they can, they just pack up and leave, they go someplace else."
New Hampshire has the third lowest unemployment rate in the nation, at just 2.7% in September according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Companies in the state are "screaming for workers", says Will Stewart, the executive director of Stay Work Play, a non-profit dedicated to attracting and retaining young workers in New Hampshire.
The New Hampshire AARP state director, Todd Fahey, sees members of the ageing population as a potential solution to the worker shortage in the state.
"The largest potential for workers will come from the band of workers between 65 and 75," he said. "We have an ageing population, but you've got to remember that 65 is not what it once was. That's a remnant of a bygone time when you would think that 65 was the termination point of somebody's productive, useful life. That's not the case any more: people are living longer and they're working longer."
However, Fahey said that older workers sometimes face discrimination in the hiring process and welcomes efforts to increase employment among the over-65 segment of the population.
All three northern New England states are now trying to figure out how to attract young, skilled workers to their largely rural part of the country.
"The worst-case scenario is that the economy stagnates and doesn't grow unless you find some other technology to replace the labour that's being demanded," said Steve Norton, the senior vice-president of strategic planning and government relations at the Elliot Health System in Manchester, New Hampshire. "Best-case scenario is that states like New Hampshire figure out what the next generation of millennials wants and build that."
With millennials more likely to be shorter on cash and more saddled with debt than previous generations, Maine and Vermont are using financial incentives to try to lure prospective residents.
In Maine, recent college graduates can have the money they spend on paying down their student loans subtracted from their annual state income taxes. And those with degrees in science, technology, engineering and math can get money back from the state government if their student loan payment is higher than the taxes they owe.
Earlier this year, Vermont's governor, Phil Scott, signed into law a bill that reimburses remote workers relocating to the state up to $10,000 over two years. With only $125,000 in funds available for the program next year, the offer cannot be extended to too many people. However, its mere existence generated a fair amount of buzz: one month after the program was announced, the state had received 1,800 inquiries.
New Hampshire has not done anything as attention-grabbing as Vermont or Maine yet to attract newcomers, but Stay Work Play has been studying what attracts younger people to the state, what keeps them there and what drives them away.
Earlier this year, the non-profit commissioned a survey of New Hampshire residents between the ages of 20 and 40. Nearly a third of respondents said they were likely to leave the state in the next two years and just 19% "definitely would not" move away.
Housing costs, a lack of career opportunities, limited nightlife and a lack of diversity drove residents away. Then there was what Stay Work Play's executive director Stewart calls the "loneliness factor" of the state; one in five respondents said they did not have a friend nearby.
Stay Work Play also wants to entice workers who grew up in New Hampshire and left to come back; more than half of New Hampshire high school students who attend a four-year college leave the state and many do not return.
Stewart says his organisation is set to begin lobbying the state government for policies that are more attractive to younger residents. At the top of the list are affordable housing, environmental protection and student debt.
"Like in every state capital, it seems like every industry group under the sun has a lobbyist there," he said. "But no one is there really speaking to the needs, wants and desires of young people."
New Hampshire is known as the state with the oldest legislature, with an average lawmaker age of 66 and just 23 of 400 state representatives under the age of 35 in the last session. However, the results of this month's midterm elections have promised a boost in lawmakers under 40, which Stewart views as promising for young people in the state.
But for those working to attract a younger workforce, the changing demographics of northern New England remains urgent.
"If things continue on this same trajectory, it's looking pretty dire," said Stewart.
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