In recent years Russia has shown an aggressive nature not seen since the end of the Cold
War, with its President- Vladimir Putin- clearly signaling he means to remake Russia back into
its former Cold War-era superpowerdom.
The US and its allies meanwhile have pushed back with economic sanctions over Russia's
invasion of Ukraine and by bolstering their military readiness within the Baltic States
area.
But who would ultimately win in a showdown between the US and Russia, and what might
that war look like?
As always the rules of this war game include no use of nuclear weapons, as a nuclear exchange
would render any war moot and result in total global devastation.
For this specific war game though the US will not be able to call upon its numerous allies
nor use their territory, pitting it on its own against the Russian bear.
Russia has a little less than half the population of the United States, with 144,554,993 people
vs the US's 324,527,000.
This ratio translates into total available manpower as well, with Russia having 34,765,736
civilians fit for military duty, and the US having 73,270,043.
In their active duty militaries, Russia has approximately 800,000 personnel, while the
US has just over 1.2 million.
Through sheer numbers alone its clear the US has a sizable advantage, but that advantage
is compounded when you take into account that roughly 2/3 of Russia's military is made up
of conscripts vs the US's all-volunteer force.
Russia's military conscripts are notoriously under-trained and poorly equipped, and suffer
from morale issues, all of which would come into play in ways that this wargame can't
properly model but would have very serious real-world implications for Russia.
In the air the US has a staggering advantage, with a total of 12,100 combat aircraft vs
Russia's 4,042.
The bulk of the US's air fleet is made up of multirole strike aircraft, giving American
forces flexibility in planning missions as the same plane may fight a strike mission
one day, and act as a fighter escort the next.
Russia has only recently begun to design aircraft with the same multirole capability, and today
the total count is 2,062 multirole aircraft for the US vs 428 for Russia.
In dedicated fighters Russia outnumbers the US nearly 2:1, with 629 fighter aircraft vs
the US's 388.
This holds true for dedicated strike or air support aircraft as well, with Russia having
752 attack aircraft vs the US's 470.
Russia's limitation in multirole aircraft means that as war progresses and losses are
incurred, it will be harder and harder for Russian air forces to launch effective sorties,
while the US could absorb those losses and maintain the flexibility needed to launch
different types of sorties effectively.
The US also has an advantage in technology levels with Russia about a decade or two behind
US aircraft, with only the Su-34 and Su-35 having comparable systems technology to most
US aircraft- though unfortunately for Russia it only fields about 120 or so of its most
modern air frames.
US missiles are also on the whole technologically superior to Russian missiles, with the modern
R-77-1 just starting to see mass proliferation in the Russian air forces, while the US is
equipped with the modern AIM-120D and near-modern AIM-120C and AIM-9X.
Where Russia could make up that technological and numbers shortfall however is in its ground-based
SAM air defenses, which vastly outnumber and outclass the US's own SAM capabilities.
While the US fields the Patriot air defense missile battery, Russia is equipped with the
modern and fearsome S-300 and S-400 systems which sport a range over double of the Patriot:
up to 400km vs 160km.
On the sea the US also outnumbers Russia, with a total naval force of 436 ships vs Russia's
313 ships.
Russia also suffers disadvantage from the fact that the bulk of its fleet is made up
of aging, Soviet-era ships.
The bulk of US naval power is in its supercarriers, of which it operates 11, vs Russia's 1- though
as recent action in Syria has shown Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov is barely combat-worthy
and is currently undergoing repair and refitting operations expected to last 3 years.
On land Russia has the clear numbers advantage, with a total of 20,050 tanks vs the US's 8,848,
though most of Russia's armored forces are made up of the 1970s T-72, with 8700 in service.
Even with some modern upgrades, they would not stand a chance against the US's M1 and
M1A2 Abrams, which are nearly completely modernized and outclass Russia's most numerous tanks,
the T-72, T-55 and the T-80 in firepower, armor and sensors.
Russia's most modern tanks include the T-90 and T-14 Armata, yet together they only number
570 total- not nearly enough to go head-to-head vs the US's Abrams.
The one overwhelming advantage Russia has over the US is in the amount of artillery
it is equipped with: 14,533 vs the US's 3,269, so though Russia may lose control of the skies
eventually it has a good chance of still giving its ground troops the fire support they would
desperately need in a fight against the US.
So how would a potential war play out?
With no hope of controlling the seas, and not enough heavy-lift transport ships to launch
an invasion across either the Atlantic or the Pacific, Russia would opt to wage a defensive
war.
Without NATO support the US could not invade via major land routes through Germany or the
Baltics, forcing it into an amphibious assault of Russia.
Though the US navy outmatches the Russian navy, Russian naval forces would opt to operate
close to shore where they can remain within range of coastal fire support and aircraft.
This would also make it easier for Russian ships to resupply and refit, meaning that
they could get back into the fight faster than American ships whom would have to make
the long trip back home to either the east coast or naval bases in the Pacific.
At the outset of war the US would seek to first degrade both the Russian navy and air
force before attempting any coastal assault.
Russia's biggest weakness would be its sheer size, forcing it to spread its air defenses
across the entirety of its coast to prevent incursions by American aircraft.
While access via carrier-based planes would be limited during most of the year due to
sea ice, bomber aircraft operating from Alaskan air bases could launch strikes across the
North Pole or west into the Kamchatka region.
Russian bombers could attempt to do the same, but ultimately both sides would see most of
their bomber fleet destroyed within days- Russian bombers would be lost to overwhelming
number of American interceptors, and US bombers would be downed by an equally overwhelming
number of Russian SAM batteries.
In the end, strategic bombers would play a small role in the opening weeks of the war
and not be worth sacrificing- with the exception of US's B-2 stealth bombers, which would likely
enjoy a degree of success, although with only 20 in its inventory the US would eventually
deplete its numbers as well.
The bulk of the US's initial war effort would be an air campaign waged by its carrier-based
strike aircraft, goading Russian air defenses to engage so that American fighters could
begin thinning out the Russian fighter fleet.
With superior technology the US would enjoy a favorable kill ratio, but Russian aircraft
would be operating defensively and supported by ground-based radar and SAM, negating American
technological advantage and equalizing that kill ratio.
This is where American numbers would tip the odds for victory in the skies, as though it
could not commit all of its aircraft at once due to a lack of nearby bases, it could fairly
quickly replace its carrier-based aircraft losses to continue the fight until exhausting
the Russian air forces.
American carriers however would be hunted by Russian submarines, which would pose a
formidable threat.
Russian subs would be limited in their effectiveness by the large number of anti-submarine warfare
platforms the US employs, but would most likely be effective in sinking at least a third of
the US carrier fleet.
The losses of entire supercarriers could also mean a loss of 80-120 aircraft as well, further
helping Russia equalize the numbers advantage enjoyed by the US.
After weeks, or possibly months, of an air and naval campaign, the US may attempt a land
invasion, though with American transports limited to a ferry total of approximately
20,000 troops per day, any amphibious assault would likely be crushed by the overwhelming
number of Russian defenders.
Instead, it's highly likely that the US would simply choose to blockade Russia, and lean
on European nations to embargo it as well.
Any actual invasion of Russian territory would prove disastrous for the US, and though over
time superior numbers, technology and an economy approximately 3 times bigger than Russia's
could make an invasion feasible, it would only come at a staggering number of casualties
for the US.
Rather than accept such high casualties, the US could simply sit back and slowly strangle
the Russian economy while continuing to wear out its air defenses to the point that it
could strike deeper and deeper into Russian territory.
Eventually this war of attrition would be enough to force Russia to the negotiating
table.
Ultimately victory would go to the United States of America, although unable to threaten
Moscow with troops-on-the-ground such victory would end up largely meaningless with few
if any concessions granted by Russia, making the entire war largely a pointless endeavor
on both sides.
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