Hey there.
Probably by the 2020s and certainly the 2030s the US race with China will really start to
heat up.
It's unclear what this will look like but we should be working hard to define the terms
today.
This competition will definitely include heavy handed diplomatic efforts across all seven
and fierce competitions for economic and technological advantage.
We really dont want this competition to be military.
If it is it will be a tragedy for the world, and a tragedy for the US and China as well.
Over the first couple decades of US war on terror idiocy China was content to sit on
the sidelines.
This is unlikely to be the case in the third and fourth decades.
As this January's new US national defense strategy makes clear, the Pentagon now intends
to keep the absurd budget and all the bases they were given to fight terrorism and use
it to play great power games everywhere from Africa to the Asian seas.
If we stay on this infantile path, China will not let that go unchallenged.
The history of great power competition in the late 19th century show this.
Germany had a couple brutally mismanaged African colonies, not because they were at all useful
to Germany, but because the British had African colonies.
And China has the potential to be a lot more powerful than Germany ever was.
2017 saw The release of the film Wolf Warrior 2 in China.
The most popular film in Chinese history is … a rousing story of a plucky humanitarian
Chinese special forces guy battling evil US imperialists in Africa.
This hasn't happened in reality yet, but there is no reason it couldn't.
China already has a large anti piracy force.
Who could object to them deciding to help out with a couple bases in Somalia?
Shouldn't the great sufferings of the people of Somalia be alleviated?
The fact that this would involve a large Chinese presence on one of the world's most important
shipping lanes would just be a small bonus.
For decades the US has been the only country powerful enough to mask its geopolitical goals
with semi-plausible humanitarian justifications.
It has been one of our most important advantages.
That will be over by the 2020s.
China already has one African base in Djibouti.
The US has been stepping up its military involvement all over the continent.
We only got the vaguest sense of the extent of this involvement when we learned that four
US soldiers, acting in an advisory capacity, died in a heated battle in Niger in October
2017.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see proxy wars in Africa between the US and China by 2030.
This will all be completely pointless of course.
It doesn't have to happen this way.
It was the policy of the US over the past 15 years, with its pointless wars in Iraq
and now Syria that set the tone.
And we haven't even paid for any of it.
The cost of the past 15 years of war has all just been added to the national debt.
The story of the 21st century will be one of competition with China.
And we chose to start out by going into massive debt to make it a military competition.
We just started a marathon with a sprint.
This channel is dedicated, in part, to trying to stuff that particular genie back into the
bottle, but it may already be too late.
What's important now, whether we are headed back into the era of great power competition
or not, is to make less mistakes than the other guy.
History tells us exactly what these mistakes look like.
From the US in Iraq, to the Soviets in Afghanistan, to the US in Vietnam, to the Axis powers in
Africa, all the way back to the British Boer War in South Africa in the early 1900s, it's
a question of not committing to pointless wars.
You want to get the other guy to over commit.
At the moment many in the US are trying to get us to commit more money and troops to
Syria.
That's nuts.
In the name of humanity and decency, we should never have been involved in Syria.
But screw all that.
Getting out of Syria as soon as possible may be a question of survival for the US world
system.
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the world a bit less nuts, please click on the Patreon link here to find out how.

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